Phoenix Real Estate Summer 2025: Are We in a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?

What the Cromford Market Index Tells Us

The Cromford Market Index (CMI) is one of the most reliable tools for tracking real-time supply and demand in the Valley:

• Over 110 = Seller's Market
• 90–110 = Balanced Market
• Below 90 = Buyer’s Market

With Greater Phoenix sitting at 75, this summer leans heavily in favor of buyers. That means more inventory, more time to decide, and more room to negotiate.

What’s Happening in Different Parts of the Valley

While the overall market favors buyers, conditions still vary neighborhood to neighborhood:

• Seller’s Markets: Some isolated pockets like El Mirage or Chandler may still see faster sales and strong offers
• Balanced to Buyer’s Markets: Most areas, including Gilbert, Mesa, and Tempe, are softening
• Buyer’s Markets: Sun City West, Casa Grande, Sun Lakes, and parts of Litchfield Park are showing clear signs of price resistance

So if you're shopping in Queen Creek or Buckeye, you might be able to negotiate more aggressively than if you’re trying to buy in a hot neighborhood like Arcadia.

If You’re Buying This Summer

This is the kind of market where buyers can breathe a little. You have options.

• Concessions are common — Nearly half of all recent sales included concessions, with the median around $10,000
• Interest rates are in the mid to high 6s right now, which is more manageable than previous months. You can still negotiate seller-paid buydowns to help ease monthly payments
• Fewer bidding wars and longer days on market mean you can make smarter, less rushed decisions

Chelsey’s Take: "Buyers right now have real leverage—not just on price, but on terms. This is when a smart offer strategy can really pay off."

If You’re Selling Right Now

It's still possible to get a great outcome, but it takes more work than it did a couple of years ago.

• Price reductions are up 58.2% year-over-year, showing that overpricing is a common (and costly) mistake
• Homes need to stand out visually and value-wise
• Offering perks like seller-paid closing costs or interest rate buydowns can make the difference

Chelsey’s Advice: "You don’t need to slash your price, but you do need to be strategic. The right incentive can keep your home competitive without leaving money on the table."

So... What Kind of Market Are We In?

Greater Phoenix is in a true buyer’s market for Summer 2025, based on the CMI. But it’s not the same everywhere:

• Entry-level homes in outer suburbs are seeing the most buyer leverage
• The luxury market is also softening, with more days on market and larger concessions
• Some popular core neighborhoods remain more resilient, but even there, bidding wars are rare

It all comes down to hyperlocal trends.

Interest Rates & Economic Vibes

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady for now, but mortgage rates remain elevated. Inflation is still stubborn, which means high borrowing costs may stick around for a bit.

That’s slowing buyer demand—but also creating great entry points for those who are ready.

Quick Tips for Summer 2025

If You're Buying:

• Take your time and be strategic—you’re in the driver’s seat
• Ask for concessions (rate buydowns, closing costs, repairs)
• Get pre-approved and ready to act on the right deal

If You're Selling:

• Be realistic with pricing—check local comps carefully
• Offer incentives before cutting price
• Work with an agent who tracks local CMI trends closely

Final Word from Chelsey

"We're in a buyer's market now—and that shifts how you approach everything, whether you're buying, selling, or doing both. I help my clients navigate each step with real-time local data so they can move smart."

Let’s Talk Strategy

Curious how your specific zip code is trending? Want help crafting an offer or prepping your home to stand out in this market? Visit www.chelseyhernandez.com to explore options, register for home alerts, or book a call.

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